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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-09-04T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-04T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/12989/-1
CME Note: Associated with M5.5 flare from AR 12673. CME start time was updated from 2017-09-04T23:06Z. Note that there was also a CME starting on 2017-09-04T19:39Z that was slightly slower but in a similar direction and was likely "merged" with the faster 2017-09-04T20:36Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-06T23:08Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Dst min. in nT: -23
Dst min. time: 2017-09-07T09:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-06T14:51Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/12988/1
Model Inputs:
2017-09-04T21:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=10.0, Lat.=-10.0, Speed=1550.0, HalfAngle=46.0, Time21.5=2017-09-04T22:38Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2017-09-06T14:51Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =31.7 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.1
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170904_223800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 45.50 hour(s)
Difference: 8.28 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2017-09-05T01:38Z

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